The race to the White House

The race to the White House, specifically the race by candidates to secure their party nomination for the White house is certainly very interestingly poised. It almost seems a foregone conclusion that John McCain will be the republican candidate, this given the fact that Matt Romney, the only real threat dropped out of the race, has backed him and urged Republicans to solidly stand behind McCain. And McCain will require this backing given the fact that his liberal views on certain key issues like abortion have not endeared him to conservative elections. But what works in his favor is the fact the TINA factor ( There is no alternative ) for the republicans and that he speaks his mind on key issues and stating one’s opinion up front in key times is seen as a hallmark of leadership. (Whether this is right or wrong is something which I’m not too sure about).

The Democratic Party is a much more tricky and complex issue. At the time of writing this, Barrack Obama clearly has the upper hand and Hillary Clinton needs to come back strongly to stake a claim for the Democratic Party nomination and with her key support base slowly but surely moving away to Senator Obama, that chance to make a resurgence seems to be slipping away rather quickly. What might work for her is the fact that the entire process of selecting the Democrat candidate has been rather divisive and bitter with both claimants taking personal pot-shots at each other. In this situation it may very well happen that the Party decides to ignore the popular vote process (which traditionally decides the candidate) and might even choose a consensus candidate. Since Obama is most likely to win the popular vote, Hillary can attempt to influence key party delegates to get her nominated. However this move is fraught with risks. First there is the risk of party supporters being disillusioned and moving away because their verdict is effectively annulled by way of party delegates internally deciding the party candidate. Also the delegates may be hesitant to take decisions which would be seen to subvert the democratic process of choosing a candidate. However they might still be tempted to choose a candidate internally and for good reason. My guess is that if such an eventuality does occur, Hillary Clinton would most likely be the Democrat candidate. Reasons are shared below:

I suspect that although Obama is the most charismatic and popular candidate amongst Democrats, that logic stops there. America is at cross-roads and they need to choose a President who while being decisive will initiate a process of healing that has hit rock bottom during the last few years. Barrack Obama is a greenhorn and while he speaks well and confidently, does not have many years of public service to back up his words, in other words a novice. Secondly and probably equally important is the fact that he does not have the complete support of the different groups. He is not African American, he is African and American (His father is Kenyan) and that makes his credentials at least amongst African American voters a bit suspect. On the other hand, the Clintons have had strong relations with the African American community and amongst women voters as well. And if it comes down to a national election, while African American voters might still vote for him, there is a strong possibility that women voters might vote for McCain given his liberal views on key issues. And something in me tells me that people in America are ready for a woman president but not for a black president. It will be a few more elections before we might see a black president. Of course, one can never say about these things… can we? It will only be revealed once we have the new president in place.

Why Raj Thackeray behaves the way he behaves

If there is one person who is heir apparent to Bal Thackeray, it has to be Raj Thackeray. Brilliant writer, fiery orator, cartoonist par –excellence; all the traits which runs in the Thackeray family, handed down from his grandfather to his uncle and now to him. Logic should have dictated that he be anointed heir apparent; however blood being thicker than water, Uddhav was made the head of the Shiv Sena and Raj formed the MNS. Even while his new party was being formed there were considerable expectations that a large chunk of Shiv Sainiks would change loyalties and side with him. However this did not happen primarily because many of them had much more faith in the old patriarch who professed that MNS would fail and that Raj would return to the Sena fold and accept Uddhav as his leader.

At the time of the starting his party, Raj undertook massive rallies throughout the state harping on an agenda on inclusiveness – trying to distance himself from the right wing politics that the Sena had come to be associated with him. He hoped to build secular credentials for himself and targeted the ever growing and powerful North Indian community as a potential vote base.

However major events along the way, like the Municipal elections in Mumbai made it amply clear that the north Indian community would never vote for him because they saw him as just another Thackeray who was out to drive them away from the city. The Marathi youth whom Raj hoped to target because of his charisma and age saw his stance of wooing non Maharastrians as betrayal and stayed away from him.

2 years down the line, the fortunes of the MNS were flagging and an inclusive agenda really did not seem to be going anywhere. He really needed to do something which would get his people back. He went back to basics and went back to the Marathi Manoos who would give him his votes. The unabashed violence in Mumbai and other parts of Maharashtra by the MNS is merely his homecoming. Violence has always been a culture of the Shiv Sena and he merely continues to propagate that tradition.

He has played his cards very smartly and now the Shiv Sena which was the vanguard of the Marathi Manoos finds itself perched in a very awkward situation. It can’t be seen to encourage Raj as that would be playing into his hands, at the same time it can’t be seen to not react to the North Indian issue. It’s a situation which works perfectly for him. Raj Thackeray has finally emerged from the shadows of his uncle.

Having said all that, I must conclude by saying that when Raj began MNS, there were a lot of people including me who had a lot of hope in him. He was young, dynamic and spoke his mind. There is a lot which he could have done but alas that was not to be. His return to ‘his roots’ while good for him makes one thing absolutely sure, he will never get my vote.