The killing of former Pakistani Premier Benazir Bhutto and the repercussions flowing from it present Pakistan with a peculiar and potentially explosive situation. That Benazir Bhutto would be the target of assassinations was never in doubt. After all, she was a key player in providing logistical and monetary support to Mujaheddin/jihadi elements in aid of their various causes, be it in Afghanistan or Kashmir. Her turnaround during the post 9/11 phase when she was in a self imposed exile where she completely washed her hands off the Jihadi elements which she harbored was not entirely surprisingly. Bush’s famous line ‘You are either with us or with them’, ensured that world leaders past and present quickly toed the American line. This move clearly did not endear her to the Jihadis who saw this and betrayal and vowed revenge. (This of course does not establish that Jihadis assassinated Benazir, it could have been anyone, though I suspect they had the most to gain from her assassination and I would stick my neck out and say that it was probably them).
Her years in exile shuttling between London and Dubai meant that she was away from the intense glare of the media. It was during this phase that she probably got to spend maximum time with her family especially her 3 children who probably needed all the time from a parent since their father Asif Ali Zardari was still lodged in jail in Pakistan on charges of corruption. During conversations with the media she often maintained that though being out of the country was distressing, she also looked upon this opportunity to spend time in the upbringing of her children for which she was very grateful. During this phase she also was a backdoor diplomat, guest speaker at various international universities… all with a view to bring about democracy in Pakistan. While her talks to academic circles certainly drew a lot of applause, the same was not the case with her diplomacy efforts, simply because Musharaff was seen to be doing a good job and was indispensable in the ‘war on terror’ campaign and because politicians like her and Mian Nawaz Sharif were seen to be the reason why Pakistan was under military rule at all … which is true in many ways.
We all know that over the years that followed, the honeymoon between Musharaff and the US deteriorated due to various reasons and the US began covert negotiations with Benazir Bhutto to get the PPP to support Musharaff’s government in return for him dropping all corruption charges against her and her family. Thus began this long and arduous courtship process with Musharaff which finally actually never materialized. During negotiations with Musharaff hit a rough patch, she also inked a pact with Nawaz Sharif to form an alliance to depose Musharaff and restore democracy in Pakistan, a move which unraveled rather quickly when negotiations between her and Musharaff resumed. One can only assume that the only logic in the entire tangle was known to the people involved as seasoned political analysts themselves were flummoxed by the rapid turn of events. Politics certainly makes strange bed-fellows. During the last few months, her parlays with Musharaff were becoming increasingly strident yet more and more hesitant. The imposition of emergency meant that Benazir could not be seen to publicly support Musharaff lest her own popular support start waning. However, her tactic support to Musharaff even during the emergency ensured that her return to Pakistan was tolerated, welcomed even. As the emergency dragged on, public pressure on her to cut ties with Musharaff became more and more vocal and she bowed to that pressure, though she never publicly criticized Musharaff. Even in her last days, she was very careful about the language she used while sloganeering against the administration, using words like ‘people high up in the government’, ‘elements in the administration’ and so on. My guess is that she harbored hopes of being the next Prime Minister come elections in January which is why she was probably guarded in her language.
Successive assassination attempts on her life clearly indicated that some very influential people did not want to see her come back to power. Whether those people were Jihadi elements or people from the administration or renege elements from the army or some other people may probably never be known though one hopes that the investigation being conducted by the Scotland Yard will throw some light on the same.
The other aspect which needs to be discussed briefly is that of Benazir nominating her son Bilawal as heir to the PPP. The dynastic elements of politics are well known and sons and daughters of political leaders all over the world are groomed to take on the political mantle after the time of their parents/aunts & uncles are over. However, it is probably for the first time that any political leader has anointed an offspring heir to a political party in a will. Although one may argue that the PPP in all essence was an extension of the Bhutto dynasty (it was started by Benazir’s father, Zufikar Ali Bhutto), treating the political party like a family fiefdom where inheritance is decided as per a will is more than slightly scary and does not bode well for Pakistan, democracy and the Bhutto family. One hopes that better sense prevails and the forthcoming generations of the Bhutto clan democratize the PPP.
About Pakistan and its future, in the short term at least… fortunately or unfortunately, the Pakistani army and America will be the guiding force in the way Pakistan’s future is shaped. With Musharaff no longer the head of the armed forces, America now has to deal with two centres of power, namely Musharaff and the Pakistani army. Given the tumultuous history of Pakistan where it has been governed for more than 30 years by the military, one really does not know when the present army decides that it has had enough of Musharaff and decides to depose him. For the sake of Pakistan, one hopes that it is able to move towards an ecology of democracy and that the general elections are a step in this direction.
A final point on Benazir herself. She probably will be remembered as a leader of immense stature who attempted to bring about genuine change in Pakistan at least earlier on in her career. That she was a woman leader in an Islamic republic brought her tremendous acclaim throughout the world and in a sense gave hope to a lot of women. In addition to the above, my belief is that she will be remembered as a person who did the mistake of linking up with Jihadis and in a sense, a person who lived by the bullet. And as they say, ‘Those who live by the bullet die by it’. Case in point.
