The race to the White House

The race to the White House, specifically the race by candidates to secure their party nomination for the White house is certainly very interestingly poised. It almost seems a foregone conclusion that John McCain will be the republican candidate, this given the fact that Matt Romney, the only real threat dropped out of the race, has backed him and urged Republicans to solidly stand behind McCain. And McCain will require this backing given the fact that his liberal views on certain key issues like abortion have not endeared him to conservative elections. But what works in his favor is the fact the TINA factor ( There is no alternative ) for the republicans and that he speaks his mind on key issues and stating one’s opinion up front in key times is seen as a hallmark of leadership. (Whether this is right or wrong is something which I’m not too sure about).

The Democratic Party is a much more tricky and complex issue. At the time of writing this, Barrack Obama clearly has the upper hand and Hillary Clinton needs to come back strongly to stake a claim for the Democratic Party nomination and with her key support base slowly but surely moving away to Senator Obama, that chance to make a resurgence seems to be slipping away rather quickly. What might work for her is the fact that the entire process of selecting the Democrat candidate has been rather divisive and bitter with both claimants taking personal pot-shots at each other. In this situation it may very well happen that the Party decides to ignore the popular vote process (which traditionally decides the candidate) and might even choose a consensus candidate. Since Obama is most likely to win the popular vote, Hillary can attempt to influence key party delegates to get her nominated. However this move is fraught with risks. First there is the risk of party supporters being disillusioned and moving away because their verdict is effectively annulled by way of party delegates internally deciding the party candidate. Also the delegates may be hesitant to take decisions which would be seen to subvert the democratic process of choosing a candidate. However they might still be tempted to choose a candidate internally and for good reason. My guess is that if such an eventuality does occur, Hillary Clinton would most likely be the Democrat candidate. Reasons are shared below:

I suspect that although Obama is the most charismatic and popular candidate amongst Democrats, that logic stops there. America is at cross-roads and they need to choose a President who while being decisive will initiate a process of healing that has hit rock bottom during the last few years. Barrack Obama is a greenhorn and while he speaks well and confidently, does not have many years of public service to back up his words, in other words a novice. Secondly and probably equally important is the fact that he does not have the complete support of the different groups. He is not African American, he is African and American (His father is Kenyan) and that makes his credentials at least amongst African American voters a bit suspect. On the other hand, the Clintons have had strong relations with the African American community and amongst women voters as well. And if it comes down to a national election, while African American voters might still vote for him, there is a strong possibility that women voters might vote for McCain given his liberal views on key issues. And something in me tells me that people in America are ready for a woman president but not for a black president. It will be a few more elections before we might see a black president. Of course, one can never say about these things… can we? It will only be revealed once we have the new president in place.